Why the EU Matters

There are four major military powers at this point of time. Two are aligned together to weaken the US – China and Russia. The other two military powers are in NATO - the US and the EU (with the UK) – thirty two members including twenty three EU nations.

If Russia attacks a NATO country, who thinks that the US would agree to take military action against Russia? Even if the November 2026 elections go very badly for the Republicans, President Trump could certainly delay any support and it would take a 2/3 majority of both houses to override him. The result: the EU and the UK would need to decide to act themselves or wait for possible US support which may never come.

The EU plans an alternative to the three hegemons

Like almost every politician’s speech, President von der Leyen in her September 16 2026 State of the Union address began by providing some context before brief updates on a range of topics – covering initiatives such as One Europe, One Market Roadmap, electrifying Europe by 2040, trade deficit with China – 1 billion euros per day, climate, wildfires, etc.

Only later in her speech did she outline the beginning of a plan to actively counter the three hegemons without directly calling out President Trump.

“...we all know the threats that we are facing. As old assumptions and relationships have frayed, we are now dealing with an openly hostile world.”

For some, the answer is to go it alone. But this is not an option for us. Europe will always lead when it comes to defending the rules-based system. But we can no longer rely on it as the only way to secure our interests. Or assume that its rules will shelter us from the complex threats that we face.

In this new world, we must urgently reimagine our partnerships. And build global coalitions for our resilience and democracies.”

2026 State of the Union Address

This became her introduction to inviting Canada to become the first associate member of the EU. No one knows what this means or how an associate membership could be created and integrated into the EU. However, this outline of a vision for democracies to work together is the first real proposal with the power to counter the hegemons.

The EU is already looking at transforming its mutual defence clause into something that could support an effective military response. Is there any chance that this mutual defence could be extended to associate member nations?

Why Canada

We can all understand why Canada has been selected – PM Mark Carney made the call that the world has passed the fork in the road back at Davos in January 2026 – the old US led ‘rules-based order’ is no more. Since then he has worked tirelessly to try and build Canadian resilience and has actively attempted to build coalitions with the EU.

What’s important to note though, is how the role of Ukraine and President Zelensky has prepared the ground for this decision that the EU must become responsible not just for its own security but focus on working with other democracies around the world who now have had over four years’ experience working together with Ukraine - especially after President Trump was elected and actively starting to force a Ukrainian surrender.

Other Partners? Japan, South Korea and Australia would have to choose

Could Japan, South Korea and Australia also become “associate members” of the EU, whatever this means? It would be clear that President Trump would not allow this to happen. His threats to the EU and Canada are probably meaningless but Japan or South Korea becoming real partners with the EU would be met with fury and retaliatory actions. A hegemon like President Trump could not sit by and watch any effective partnerships occur unless these countries are prepared to split from the US and it’s too early for that to happen.

If Japan and South Korea decide to develop their own nuclear weapons then that will be the trigger for them to step down a new road and partnership with the EU could become the next step. It’s impossible for anyone outside the intelligence community to know if either country is going down the path of developing nuclear weapons but I would assume that both countries are actively working on their Plan B where they become independent of the US for their defence needs.

Australia has already been mentioned as a possible associate member candidate by the EU but has not shown any real interest. The most likely response by the US would be the classic actions of a bully – threats, sanctions, and actively campaigning against any Australian Government that would even consider such a partnership. No Australian Government will take the risk of breaking with the US, and support for AUKUS is still strong.

The most likely time the Australian public may ‘give up’ on the US is if the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is able to successfully control Taiwan – either through invasion or blockade. The draw-down of US military capability in the Middle East has greatly increased the option for the CCP to take action against Taiwan and if coordinated with a Russian attack on a NATO country would force all the ASEAN countries to submit to the CCP’s hegemony. Australia would not be an exception as its capability to develop an effective Plan B is non-existent given the current dysfunctional political system where the only goal is to win the next election.

Ukraine – make or break for the EU

The hegemons do not want to see the EU succeed. From the CCP’s perspective, the EU is both their biggest market and potentially their biggest competitor. President von der Leyen stated that the EU’s trade deficit with China had reached a tipping point and ‘It leads to deindustrialisation in the industrial heartlands of Europe. This is unsustainable” (Sept Speech). If the EU were to loose its ability to function effectively the CCP would be a prime beneficiary. Open source intelligence of the active efforts of the CCP to destabilize the EU include:

• Belgium’s VSSE intelligence service says Chinese interference aims both to cultivate European decision-makers and “to divide Western allies,” including intra-European relations. MERICS has separately documented Chinese efforts to exploit differences among member states. (see VSE Intelligence Report 2025)

• The European Union External Action (EEAS) March 2026 Foreign Interference and Information Manipulation (FIMI) assessment identifies China as a threat actor using conspiracy narratives, AI-assisted amplification and suppression of critical voices. It specifically reports narratives portraying Russia’s war against Ukraine and Ukrainian EU accession as sources of European division

• The EEAS also stated “China is a multifaceted FIMI actor with an arsenal that is diverse and includes various tactics that are often used in combination with other forms of interference, for example economic coercion, transnational repression, and cyber threats. Chinese FIMI activities consist of promoting its message while building its presence in the global information space and suppressing critical voices.” Information Integrity and Countering Foreign Information Manipulation & Interference (FIMI) Threat Landscape Overview March 2026

• The EU attributed an attack on the Czech Foreign Ministry to APT31, associated with China’s Ministry of State Security European Union Press Release May 2025

• In March 2026 the EU sanctioned Chinese companies associated with cyberattacks; one was linked to compromises of more than 65,000 devices in six EU states EU Press Release March 2026

The CCP sees a unified EU as a strategic threat and is actively using economic coercion, cyber espionage, influence networks, and attempting to exploit divisions between the EU states. If the EU can successfully push back against the China 2.0 threat called out by the EU President the scope, breadth and intensisty of these campaigns is likely to increase dramatically.

History has demonstrated that the behaviour of hegemons is to use their hegemonic powers to weaken any other powers capable of restraining their exercise of their own powers. The CCP is not a more reliable alternative to the tantrums of President Trump. Their behaviour over the last twenty years or so has shown a determination to become the dominant world power. The EU is on track to becoming the only power able to resist them if the coalition that they are attempting to build is successful and the internal EU conflicts do not fracture the EU.

The US threats to the EU

While China’s CCP is attempting to weaken the EU through behind the scenes activities the US under President Trump is now actively campaigning to try and break up the EU. The reasons are the same as for China – a strong EU means that the US is not the dominant partner with the ability to dictate what wars are fought, who fights them, how tariffs are implemented, trade wars are fought, US tech companies act unfettered etc etc.

It is easy to see how Russia is waging a hybrid war with the EU – but so is the US although not as obviously. Vice President Vance in his joint press conference with Victor Orbán, the Prime Minister of Hungary, shortly before the Hungarian elections said:

Now, I don’t expect, of course, the people of Hungary to listen to the vice president of the United States, that’s not primarily why I’m here. But I did want to send a signal to everybody, particularly the bureaucrats in Brussels, who have done everything they can to hold down the people of Hungary because they don’t like the leader who has actually stood up for the people of Hungary.

Sovereignty, democracy are fundamentally about the people choosing. And part of the reason why we’re here and part of the reason why the president of United States sent me here is because we think the amount of interference that’s come from the bureaucracy in Brussels has been truly disgraceful.
Transcript of April 7, 2026 press conference

When you review this transcript JD Vance and President Trump see the EU as an enemy. Vance also attacked the deal within Germany not to form a coalition with the AfD including meeting with the AfD leader Alice Weidel nine days before the 2025 elections. The idea that in a post-Trump world the US would reset its relations with the EU is not something that the Republican Party is likely to support.

The most important statement of how the US sees the EU is outlined in the the November 2025 US National Security Strategy which states:

‘Our broad policy for Europe should prioritize:
• Reestablishing conditions of stability within Europe and strategic stability with Russia;
• Enabling Europe to stand on its own feet and operate as a group of aligned sovereign nations, including by taking primary responsibility for its own defense, without being dominated by any adversarial power;
• Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations;’

There are many examples of how the US is supporting this strategy – the most important is how President Trump’s ‘peace envoys’ continue to explore developing economic relationships with Russia.

Based on both the actions and the words of this US administration everyone in the EU should understand that the US sees the EU not as a partner but a direct threat to its power and is actively working to destabilize the EU – hybrid warfare in action.

Russia – a war economy with no ability to stop

Just like President Trump’s quick war with Iran, President Putin has started a nightmare war that he cannot stop. Over the last four years, the Russian economy has been transformed into a war economy with estimates of military expenditure increasing from approximately 4.8% of GDP in 2022 to 7.5% in 2025 with about 20% of government spending going to support the war.
- from A Budget for a Fifth Year of War: Military Spending in Russia’s Budget for 2026, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, March 2026.

While it seems unlikely that Russia can win a war with Ukraine unless the support from Europe collapses. This risk is now becoming serious. While Hungary is no longer a Russian supporter the Slovak and Bulgarian governments oppose military aid to Ukraine.

The real risks are the elections in 2027 when France, Italy and Poland go to the polls. All these governments are currently strong supporters of Ukraine but there is strong opposition to Ukraine in all three countries. While the AfD, which opposes supporting Ukraine and wants to resume relations with Russia is doing exceptionally well in state elections thenational election is not scheduled until 2029. The AfD successes, though, may force a ‘reset’ of Germany’s support for Ukraine before the 2029 elections or in the worst case an early election if the current coalition falls apart.

EU needs a Plan B

Thinking about what happens if Russia can obtain a peace deal which gives it much of what it is demanding is instructive. If Ukraine is neutralized, and still vulnerable, what is the Plan B for when Russia pushes into a NATO country and the US refuses to act?

A Plan B must be for the worst possible combination – the US fails to support Europe when President Putin moves from threats to direct action to attack a NATO country in Europe or more likely pushes hybrid warfare to a stage where Europe needs to act.

The risk of war in Europe and Asia before January 2029 when the new US President is due to take power is something that we all need to care about and make sure our politicians understand that ‘united democracies are strong, but divided as we are now we are weak’. The EU needs the associate membership idea to focus not just on economic relationships but actual military partnerships with other democracies that will be prepared to act together. It needs Japan, South Korea, Australia and other democracies to really look at what a future world might look like if the three hegemons continue unchecked.